Jean-Luc Mélenchon · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30.
Price history
87¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Marine Le Pen 87¢
Range
1¢-87¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JMEL
Sep 22, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 2h ago
Implied probability
Bid
90¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$6
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
90 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
Identifier
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JMEL
Event family
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Marine Le Pen 87¢
Current share
—
Marine Le Pen
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-MLEP
Nathalie Arthaud
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-NART
Fabien Roussel
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FROU
François Ruffin
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FRUF
Raphaël Glucksmann
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-RGLU
Marine Tondelier
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-MTON
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JMEL
François Hollande
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FHOL
Éric Zemmour
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-EZEM
Édouard Philippe
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-EPHI
Jordan Bardella
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JBAR
Gabriel Attal
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-GATT
Bruno Retailleau
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-BRET
Olivier Faure
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-OFAU
Dominique de Villepin
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-DVIL
Clémentine Autain
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-CAUT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.