SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate114 markets

Will A$AP Rocky be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027

event base · KXHEADLINE

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 19 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$94.5K
Constituents
114
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
81.0%
Trombone Shorty & Orle

Outcome probabilities

114 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a completely flat structure across all observable tenors, with every constituent market priced identically at 1.0% YES probability regardless of time-to-resolution. All 114 markets share a uniform 499-day tenor to the December 27, 2031 resolution date, eliminating any traditional term structure differentiation. This flat topology at the lowest observable probability tier indicates that the market assigns minimal credence to the headline event occurring, with no variation in conviction across the entire portfolio. The zero trading volume across all positions reinforces the illiquidity and lack of price discovery in this market family, suggesting these prices may reflect default or placeholder valuations rather than active consensus. The market's uniform pricing at 1.0% across all markets communicates an extremely bearish view on event occurrence, essentially treating the headline as nearly impossible within the 499-day window. The absence of any upward slope or term premium—which would typically indicate increasing probability at longer tenors—suggests the market does not expect the event to become more likely as time progresses. Rather, the flat floor at 1.0% implies the market views this as a tail-risk scenario with negligible probability density across the entire forecast horizon. The complete lack of trading activity and price differentiation across 114 separate markets indicates minimal market engagement with this event family, making it difficult to distinguish between genuine low conviction and insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price signals.

Generated 8/19/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

114 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Trombone Shorty & Orleans Avenue be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Trombone Shorty & Orleans Avenue16mo81.0%$4.0K
Will Irma Thomas be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Irma Thomas16mo45.0%$0
Will Big Freedia be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Big Freedia16mo43.0%$2.6K
Will The Strokes be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: The Strokes16mo41.0%$5.2K
Will The Revivalists be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: The Revivalists16mo38.0%$1.5K
Will Ella Langley be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Ella Langley16mo36.0%$225
Will Jon Batiste be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Jon Batiste16mo33.0%$1.7K
Will Glass Animals be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Glass Animals16mo26.0%$0
Will Chris Stapleton be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Chris Stapleton16mo26.0%$0
Will Noah Kahan be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Noah Kahan16mo25.0%$1.2K
Will Morgan Wallen be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Morgan Wallen16mo25.0%$0
Will Tedeschi Trucks Band be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Tedeschi Trucks Band16mo24.0%$0
Will Megan Moroney be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Megan Moroney16mo24.0%$0
Will Marcus King be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Marcus King16mo22.0%$0
Will Garth Brooks be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Garth Brooks16mo22.0%$0
Will Luke Bryan be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Luke Bryan16mo22.0%$0
Will Bonnie Raitt be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Bonnie Raitt16mo21.0%$0
Will Gary Clark Jr. be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Gary Clark Jr.16mo21.0%$1.6K
Will Kendrick Lamar be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Kendrick Lamar16mo20.0%$0
Will Tyler, The Creator be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Tyler, The Creator16mo20.0%$0
Will Zach Bryan be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Zach Bryan16mo20.0%$0
Will Lana Del Rey be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Lana Del Rey16mo20.0%$0
Will Chappell Roan be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Chappell Roan16mo19.0%$0
Will Lorde be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Lorde16mo19.0%$0
Will Pearl Jam be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Pearl Jam16mo19.0%$0
Will Post Malone be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Post Malone16mo19.0%$0
Will SZA be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: SZA16mo19.0%$0
Will Neil Young be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Neil Young16mo19.0%$0
Will Noah Kahan be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Noah Kahan16mo19.0%$0
Will Lana Del Rey be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Lana Del Rey16mo18.0%$0
Will My Chemical Romance be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: My Chemical Romance16mo18.0%$0
Will Paramore be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Paramore16mo18.0%$0
Will Sabrina Carpenter be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Sabrina Carpenter16mo18.0%$0
Will Foo Fighters be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Foo Fighters16mo18.0%$0
Will Kings of Leon be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Kings of Leon16mo18.0%$0
Will Hozier be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Hozier16mo18.0%$0
Will Kacey Musgraves be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Kacey Musgraves16mo18.0%$0
Will Arctic Monkeys be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Arctic Monkeys16mo17.0%$0
Will Jack White be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Jack White16mo17.0%$0
Will Muse be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Muse16mo17.0%$0
Will The Smashing Pumpkins be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: The Smashing Pumpkins16mo17.0%$0
Will Cage the Elephant be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Cage the Elephant16mo16.0%$0
Will Dua Lipa be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Dua Lipa16mo16.0%$0
Will Luke Combs be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Luke Combs16mo16.0%$0
Will The Lumineers be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: The Lumineers16mo16.0%$0
Will Travis Scott be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Travis Scott16mo16.0%$0
Will Vampire Weekend be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Vampire Weekend16mo16.0%$0
Will Dave Matthews Band be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Dave Matthews Band16mo16.0%$0
Will Florence + the Machine be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Florence + the Machine16mo16.0%$0
Will Mumford & Sons be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Mumford & Sons16mo16.0%$0
Will Twenty One Pilots be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Twenty One Pilots16mo16.0%$0
Will Vampire Weekend be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Vampire Weekend16mo16.0%$0
Will Leon Bridges be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Leon Bridges16mo16.0%$0
Will Pearl Jam be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Pearl Jam16mo16.0%$0
Will Jason Aldean be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Jason Aldean16mo16.0%$0
Will Zach Bryan be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027?: Zach Bryan16mo16.0%$0
Will Billie Eilish be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Billie Eilish16mo15.0%$0
Will The Black Keys be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: The Black Keys16mo15.0%$0
Will Blink-182 be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Blink-18216mo15.0%$0
Will Boygenius be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Boygenius16mo15.0%$0
Will Fall Out Boy be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Fall Out Boy16mo15.0%$0
Will Jack Harlow be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Jack Harlow16mo15.0%$0
Will Kacey Musgraves be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Kacey Musgraves16mo15.0%$0
Will Tyler Childers be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Tyler Childers16mo15.0%$0
Will Blink-182 be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Blink-18216mo15.0%$0
Will Bon Iver be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Bon Iver16mo15.0%$0
Will Cage the Elephant be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Cage the Elephant16mo15.0%$0
Will The Killers be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: The Killers16mo15.0%$0
Will Lord Huron be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Lord Huron16mo15.0%$0
Will My Chemical Romance be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: My Chemical Romance16mo15.0%$0
Will Noah Kahan be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Noah Kahan16mo15.0%$0
Will Paramore be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Paramore16mo15.0%$0
Will Weezer be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Weezer16mo15.0%$0
Will Khruangbin be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Khruangbin16mo15.0%$0
Will Widespread Panic be a headliner at New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027?: Widespread Panic16mo15.0%$700
Will Green Day be a headliner at Boston Calling Music Festival 2027?: Green Day16mo14.0%$0
Will The Cure be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: The Cure16mo14.0%$0
Will Imagine Dragons be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Imagine Dragons16mo14.0%$0
Will Pearl Jam be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Pearl Jam16mo14.0%$0
Will Tame Impala be a headliner at 2027 Minnesota Yacht Club Festival?: Tame Impala16mo14.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 114 constituents.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXHEADLINE on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:22:16 GMT.