Will Indiana be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)

The yield curve across this 60-market event family displays a notably flat structure, with all markets sharing an identical 127-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, the curve reveals substantial cross-sectional variation rather than traditional term structure dynamics. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around low-probability outcomes: Notre Dame, Oregon, and Indiana consistently trade at 1-5% across multiple weeks, while higher-probability outcomes concentrate on Ohio State (ranging 31-49%), Texas (17-46%), and UGA (2-21%). The distribution suggests these are ranked outcomes within college football, where the market assigns dramatically different likelihoods to different teams achieving specific ranking positions. OSU commands the highest probabilities across nearly every week measured, trading as high as 49% in week 6, indicating the market views this outcome as substantially more likely than alternatives. The flat tenor structure—with all markets resolving in 127 days—prevents traditional yield curve analysis but reveals instead the market's probabilistic ranking of outcomes within a fixed timeframe. The consistent elevation of OSU and Texas probabilities across all weeks, combined with the persistent suppression of lower-tier teams, suggests the market expects clarity on these rankings to emerge and stabilize well before resolution. The minimal trading volume across most markets (predominantly $0 vol24h) indicates thin liquidity, which may explain why probabilities remain static rather than converging. The modest activity concentrated in OSU, Texas, and UGA markets suggests these are the focal points of genuine uncertainty, while the market treats other outcomes as settled expectations.