Carson Beck records 1000+ passing yards

The prediction market exhibits a flat yield curve structure, with all 306 constituent markets sharing an identical 126-day tenor to resolution. Within this single bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional term structure. Probabilities range from a low of 3.0% (appearing across multiple markets including KXNFLTSPEC-27ARI-MHARRISON18RY200, KXNFLTSPEC-27BAL-ZFLOWERS4RY200, and KXNFLTSPEC-27CAR-CHUBBARD30R75R75) to a high of 56.0% (KXNFLTSPEC-27CAR-ADILLON28RUTD). The median probability across the sample hovers in the 10-20% range, with notable clustering around 8-13% and 24-30%. The cheapest YES probabilities at 3.0% represent the floor of market conviction, while the most expensive at 56.0% represents the ceiling, suggesting significant heterogeneity in how the market prices different outcomes within this event family. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield curve interpretation regarding timing expectations. However, the wide probability dispersion across markets with identical resolution dates indicates the market is pricing fundamentally different outcomes or contingencies within the KXNFLTSPEC event family rather than expressing views about when an event occurs. The concentration of lower probabilities (3-13%) combined with a long right tail extending to 56% suggests the market assigns relatively low baseline probability to most specific outcomes, with only select scenarios commanding higher conviction. This distribution pattern implies the market views the event space as fragmented across many possible scenarios, none of which dominates market expectations, rather than indicating strong directional conviction about a single outcome