110-Point Contagion Gap: Sell Crowley Margin Market at 88c
C2, C3, C4, and C6 all show the David Crowley margin-of-victory contract lagging at 88c despite trigger markets having moved -75 to -83 delta against a large Democratic margin outcome. The contagion gap is 108-110 points — the largest in the entire dataset. Meanwhile Francesca Hong (M7, M17) at 10c with 2.4M volume represents a 32-43 delta move suggesting competitive pressure is real. Sell the overpriced Crowley margin contract before primary resolution on day 83.
The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is generating the highest contagion gaps in the dataset — 108 to 110 points — between fast-moving trigger markets and a lagging David Crowley margin-of-victory contract stuck at 88c. M5 (Crowley nominee at 89c, 858k volume) and M7/M17 (Hong at 10c, 2.4M volume) are pricing a decisive Crowley victory, yet downstream margin markets have not caught up. The lag between nominee probability and margin-of-victory pricing is the structural edge.
Catalyst2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary result (83 days out, ~Nov 3 2026)
RiskCrowley wins by large margin; Hong vote collapses entirely and the margin-of-victory contract resolves YES
WatchCrowley margin-of-victory contract resolves NO or at reduced probability <60c · by 2026-11-03
sf ideas && sf book KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-DCRO-P1