22-Cent Insurrection Act Arb: L5 at 21c vs L6 at 43c Same Resolution
L5 and L6 both ask 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his presidency?' but are priced at 21c and 43c respectively — a 22c gap that exceeds our 5c arb threshold by 4x. L5 carries an 806 IY at current price, making it an exceptional carry vehicle even without the arb. Buy L5 at 21c and sell L6 at 43c for a market-neutral 22c locked spread, or play directionally: the 21c price on L5 looks more fundamentally grounded given the SAVE Act at 9c and the broad legislative gridlock narrative. This is the only clean cross-contract arb in the legislative dataset.
Two markets referencing Trump's Insurrection Act invocation are priced at 21c (L5, IY 806) and 43c (L6, IY 53) — a 22c cross-contract gap on what should resolve identically, representing a pure arbitrage. The veto override market (L1) at 10c with 1,928 IY is pricing near-impossibility before 2027, while L2 (ever) sits at 29c — consistent with the political highlights showing Democrats favored for the House at 81c but Republicans holding the Senate at 54c. The structural divergence between L5 and L6 is the cleanest trade in the legislative complex.
CatalystAny executive order announcement or civil unrest event triggering Insurrection Act commentary
RiskMarkets converge to the 43c price rather than 21c if new political catalyst emerges; liquidity may be thin
WatchL5 reprices toward L6 (43c) or L6 reprices toward L5 (21c); spread collapses below 5c · by 2026-10-15
sf ideas && sf book KXINSURRECTION-29-27