Veto Override Before 2027: 1,928 IY at 10c With Congressional Catalyst
L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at just 10c with a 1,928 annualized IY — one of the highest non-weather yield opportunities in the dataset. Democrats are priced at 81c to hold the House (per highlights), which is the structural prerequisite for any override. The 10c price implies near-impossibility, but with Michigan Senate primaries heating up and midterm positioning intensifying, any legislative drama that forces a veto vote could reprice this sharply. The 1,928 IY compensates for the low base rate: a 1c move to 11c is a 10% gain with sub-6-month resolution.
Two markets referencing Trump's Insurrection Act invocation are priced at 21c (L5, IY 806) and 43c (L6, IY 53) — a 22c cross-contract gap on what should resolve identically, representing a pure arbitrage. The veto override market (L1) at 10c with 1,928 IY is pricing near-impossibility before 2027, while L2 (ever) sits at 29c — consistent with the political highlights showing Democrats favored for the House at 81c but Republicans holding the Senate at 54c. The structural divergence between L5 and L6 is the cleanest trade in the legislative complex.
CatalystCongressional vote on contentious legislation that Trump vetoes; midterm election results
RiskRepublican House prevents any override attempt; 10c goes to zero
WatchL1 resolves YES or reprices to 20c+ on legislative catalyst · by 2026-12-31
sf ideas && sf book KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27