90-point contagion gap in NY-22 vs VA-03 — sell the stale price
C1 shows a 64-delta move in NY-22 Democrat (trigger) while VA-03 Democrat (lagging) sits at just 11¢ — a 90-point gap, the largest in the dataset and the clearest lag arbitrage available. Simultaneously, C2/C3/C4 show the reverse: NC-12, PA-04, and NY-26 Democrat triggers have all dropped 76-77 points while NY-22 Democrat remains anchored at 84¢ — an -87-point gap screaming for correction. The 84¢ price on NY-22 Democrat is a stale quote in a market that has repriced every correlated seat lower; sell NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ targeting a move toward 40-50¢.
NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ is the anchor price in a cluster of correlated House race markets, yet multiple trigger markets have sold off 70-77 points while NY-22 has barely moved — creating contagion gaps of 85-90 points. These gaps represent pure lag arbitrage: when structurally correlated markets diverge this sharply, mean reversion to a new equilibrium is the highest-probability trade available. The direction is sell NY-22 Democrat (or buy the lagging contracts hedged), as the trigger market repricing is the leading signal.
CatalystBroader Democratic House race repricing as correlated districts resolve; any national polling shift
RiskNY-22 has district-specific factors (incumbent strength, local fundraising) that insulate it from national wave repricing
WatchNY-22 Democrat price corrects to below 50¢ or resolves NO · by 2026-08-20
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