95pt OH-13 contagion lag mirrors CA-47 pattern — double the signal
C3 and C4 show 95pt and 94pt contagion gaps respectively for OH-13 Democratic win, currently priced at 85¢. Both the Begich (-47¢) and Barlow (-45¢) trigger markets confirm the Republican weakness signal. The dual-trigger confirmation raises conviction — this is not noise. OH-13 Democratic win at 85¢ should converge toward 90-93¢ as the contagion reprices. Volume of 1,080 on related markets (M12) confirms active price discovery.
Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.
CatalystRepublican challenger polling data; Democratic incumbent approval; primary results
RiskRedistricting challenge; national Democratic headwinds from inflation data
WatchYES — Democrat wins OH-13 House race · by 2026-11-10
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