House Majority Call By Election Night — 100% IY at 83c Is Pure Carry
M3, M4, and M5 each price at 83¢ with 100% implied yield and $2,230-$2,420 in 24h volume, resolving in 75 days. At 83¢ on a near-certain outcome (highlights peg Democrats at 84¢ for House control), the annualized carry is extraordinary. M1 and M7 offer the same trade at 85¢ with 81% IY and $4,141+ volume — deeper liquidity for larger size. This is a yield harvesting position, not a directional bet.
Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.
CatalystNovember 3, 2026 election night; early AP calling pattern from historical data
RiskAP delays call past deadline (unprecedented but non-zero); Democratic underperformance collapses position
WatchAP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date · by 2026-11-04
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