Congress Override Before 2027 at 9c Offers 2,592 IY Signal
L1 prices a Congressional override of Trump's veto before 2027 at just 9c with an annualized IY of 2,592 — the highest legislative yield in the dataset. With Democrats favored to take the House at 83-85c (highlighted data), a Democratic House majority combined with Senate swing votes creates a realistic override scenario on a high-salience bill. The 164 IY on L2 (override ever) at 20c confirms the market systematically underprices this risk across timeframes.
Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.
CatalystDemocratic House victory in November 2026 midterms creating override-capable majority
RiskSenate remains Republican-controlled; Trump avoids sending override-bait legislation; Democratic House majority proves insufficient
WatchCongress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before Jan 1, 2027 · by 2026-12-31
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