Congress override odds at 10c; legislative impotence is underpriced certainty
L1 prices a Congressional override of Trump's veto before 2027 at just 10c with an IY of 2,142 — one of the highest yield figures in the dataset. The historical base rate for veto overrides requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers; with Republicans controlling the Senate at 55% odds and Democrats holding the House at 83%, the math for an override is nearly impossible before 2027. The 10c price may actually be too HIGH given structural constraints; this is a high-IY sell-no opportunity or a momentum confirmation for political risk longs. L2 at 30c (ever override) provides the longer-dated anchor showing markets don't believe in legislative checks.
The Insurrection Act contract at 55-59c and a 16% impeachment probability represent a meaningful and growing political risk premium not fully reflected in correlated policy markets. Congressional override odds at just 10c for pre-2027 and 30c ever suggest markets believe Trump's executive authority remains largely unchecked, which is consistent with the Insurrection Act pricing. Traders should position for continued executive escalation while fading the tail risk of legislative pushback.
CatalystAny high-profile Trump veto followed by failed override vote in Congress
RiskBipartisan coalition emerges on a specific bill (e.g., debt ceiling, defense); override succeeds unexpectedly
WatchL1 resolves NO; target exit at 5c or expiry · by 2026-12-31
sf ideas && sf book KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27