Insurrection Act cross-venue gap: 22c vs 55c is 33c arb
L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 22c while L6 prices the same event at 55c — a 33-cent cross-venue gap that far exceeds the 5c arb threshold. This is the single largest identifiable pricing discrepancy in the dataset. L5 carries an IY of 844, making it a high-yield long even without the arb. Buy L5 yes at 22c and sell L6 yes at 55c for a risk-neutral 33c locked spread, or take the pure long on L5 given the IY signal.
The Insurrection Act contract at 55-59c and a 16% impeachment probability represent a meaningful and growing political risk premium not fully reflected in correlated policy markets. Congressional override odds at just 10c for pre-2027 and 30c ever suggest markets believe Trump's executive authority remains largely unchecked, which is consistent with the Insurrection Act pricing. Traders should position for continued executive escalation while fading the tail risk of legislative pushback.
CatalystAny domestic civil unrest event, border enforcement escalation, or Trump executive order referencing military deployment
RiskMarkets converge to middle (38-40c); partial capture only. L6 venue may have different resolution criteria.
WatchL5 reprices to 40c+ or L6 collapses to 35c; spread compression target 15c or less · by 2026-12-31
sf ideas && sf book KXINSURRECTION-29-27