Congress veto override by 2027 at 10c: 2,539 IY legislative hedge
L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at just 10c with a 2,539 IY — one of the highest legislative yield rates in the dataset. L2 (override ever) sits at 28c, implying a 28% lifetime probability; L1 at 10c implies only 36% of that lifetime probability occurs before 2027, which seems conservative given the current legislative calendar compression. The 2,539 IY makes this a capital-efficient hedge against political regime disruption that also complements the Hormuz thesis.
R4 signals a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz transit calls above 60 (7-day MA), with the contract priced at just 17c for the period through Jan 2027. This is a contrarian long against the geopolitical risk consensus — the market is pricing near-certain disruption while the IMF PortWatch data implies a recovery trajectory. Simultaneously, L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2,539 IY offers a legislative hedge for the geopolitical complex.
CatalystMajor legislation passage requiring override; bipartisan coalition formation on budget or tariff bill
RiskUnified GOP blocks all override attempts; Congress recesses without action
WatchL1 reprices to 20c+ on credible override vote; 2x return from 10c entry · by 2026-12-20
sf ideas && sf book KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27