SimpleFunctions

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations

John Turturro is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations.

Price history

15¢ current

17¢
25¢
Jun 17, 2026Jul 16, 2026

Contract brief

If John Turturro has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

John Turturro

Rank

#11 of 16

Leader

Matt Damon 86¢

Range

1¢-86¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-JOHN

Jul 16, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 50m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 16, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 50m ago

Bid

Ask

14¢

Spread

24h volume

$32

Family rank

#11 of 16

16 outcomes · 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

9 / 14¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
9¢5
8¢515
7¢200
3¢286
2¢1.0K
AskSize
14¢5
15¢102
17¢200
78¢198
79¢47

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If John Turturro has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-JOHN

SF Signal
SF Index
346.21
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

692.4%

IY (No)

6.8%

Adj IY

346%

CRI

10

Overround

4.4%

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

692.4%
6.8%
Adj IY
346%
10
Overround
4.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.