2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid market on Cynthia Erivo's 2027 Best Actress nomination shows a stark asymmetry, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 249.5% annualized yield against just 13.7% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of nomination probability relative to the 25¢ quote.
Analysis
This illiquid market on Cynthia Erivo's 2027 Best Actress nomination shows a stark asymmetry, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 249.5% annualized yield against just 13.7% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of nomination probability relative to the 25¢ quote. The $397 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading as a liquidity indicator, while the 624-day timeframe to resolution and moderate cliff risk score (4) suggest execution risk remains manageable despite the long duration.
Resolution rules
If Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-CYN yes 100