2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
Michelle Williams is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 43¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations.
Price history
43¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Michelle Williams has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Michelle Williams
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Julianne Moore 60¢
Range
1¢-60¢
Family volume
$590
Identifier
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MIC
Jul 24, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
43¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$65
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$590
Orderbook snapshot
43 / 48¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Michelle Williams has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MIC
Event family
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$590
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Julianne Moore 60¢
Current share
11%
Julianne Moore
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-JUL
Inde Navarrette
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-IND
Michelle Williams
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MIC
Mikey Madison
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MIK
Cynthia Erivo
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-CYN
Daisy Edgar-Jones
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-DAI
Anne Hathaway
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-ANN
Natalie Portman
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-NAT
Joan Collins
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-JOA
Emily Blunt
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-EMI
Zendaya
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-ZEN
Lily Gladstone
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-LIL
Kirsten Dunst
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-KIR
Shailene Woodley
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-SHA
Dakota Johnson
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-DAK
Michelle Monaghan
kalshi · KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MICH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.