2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid market on Scarlett Johansson's 2027 Oscar nomination shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 307% annualized return versus just 11% for No, suggesting significant underpricing or speculative positioning.
Analysis
This illiquid market on Scarlett Johansson's 2027 Oscar nomination shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 307% annualized return versus just 11% for No, suggesting significant underpricing or speculative positioning. The $19.78 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 8¢ spread potentially unrepresentative of true fair value. With 624 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 5, the market has time for price discovery, but traders should be cautious given the thin liquidity and wide bid-ask gap.
Resolution rules
If Scarlett Johansson has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-SCA yes 100