2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $22 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $22 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The asymmetric implied yields (46% for Yes vs. 74.5% for No) suggest significant uncertainty pricing, though the risk-adjusted yield of 37% indicates the market may be overestimating volatility given the long 624-day timeframe to resolution. With nearly two years until the 2027 Oscars and a specific film nomination as the resolution criteria, this contract carries substantial cliff risk and would benefit from substantially more liquidity before it becomes a meaningful prediction instrument.
Resolution rules
If Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom has been nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-SHA yes 100