2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 82% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Toy Story 5
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Hoppers
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$340
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
493 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Toy Story 5
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-TOY
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Minions & Monsters
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-MIN
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Tangles
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-TAN
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Hoppers
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-HOP
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Wildwood
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-WIL
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-SHA
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Ray Gunn
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-RAY
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Forgotten Island
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-FOR
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Toy Story 5 receives a nomination for Best Animated Feature Film at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Market prices currently place Toy Story 5 as the strong frontrunner at 91 cents, with Hoppers the distant second choice at 80 cents. The high price reflects the franchise's historical Oscar track record and typical industry expectations for major studio animated releases. Factors that could shift this probability include the film's critical reception upon release, competition from other major studio releases, and how Academy voters respond to the film's creative direction. The Official Academy Awards eligibility dates and the eventual nomination announcement in late 2026 will definitively resolve this contract, making pre-release perception and industry sentiment the primary drivers of current market pricing.
- ›Toy Story franchise has received Best Animated Feature nominations in recent iterations (Toy Story 3, 4), establishing pattern recognition
- ›Major Pixar/Disney releases typically generate strong initial Oscar positioning, though commercial success doesn't guarantee nomination
- ›Limited trading volume on competing animated features (Hoppers at 80¢ with zero 24h volume) suggests modest market conviction in alternatives
- ›Academy voting patterns for animated features can shift based on film quality and storylelling innovation versus established brand recognition
- ›Nomination cutoff and announcement timing (typically late January 2027) represents the key resolution event for this contract
What moved the line
- Aug 24Forgotten Island↑24pp22→46¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Wildwood↑22pp55→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Forgotten Island↓4pp26→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Wildwood↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Hoppers↑4pp79→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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