2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 90% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Toy Story 5
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Wildwood
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$24
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
554 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Forgotten Island
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-FOR
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Tangles
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-TAN
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Wildwood
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-WIL
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Toy Story 5
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-TOY
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-SHA
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Ray Gunn
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-RAY
2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Hoppers
KXOSCARNOMSBANIMATEDF-27-HOP
Analysis
The market currently prices 'Hoppers' at 81% likelihood to receive a 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nomination. This reflects bets aggregated across six competing contracts on Kalshi, where Hoppers holds a commanding lead over the second-place option at 77%. The probability level suggests traders view this film as a strong contender for nomination based on current information. The Oscars ceremony and nomination announcement scheduled for early 2027 will definitively resolve this outcome. Key uncertainties include the film's actual release date and quality reception, competition from other animated releases throughout 2026-2027, and evolving Academy voting patterns. Trading volume on the Hoppers contract remains light at $1 over 24 hours, indicating limited recent conviction changes despite the high price point.
- ›Film's theatrical release date and audience reception metrics determine baseline eligibility and competitive positioning
- ›Number and quality of competing animated features released in the 2026-2027 eligibility window directly affects nomination likelihood
- ›Academy's recent voting trends show animation category typically receives 5-10 nominations, affecting threshold for inclusion
- ›Current 81% price implies material probability (~19%) of non-nomination despite market leader status, reflecting genuine uncertainty
- ›Thin 24-hour trading volume ($1) suggests price may not reflect recent market consensus if significant new information emerged
What moved the line
- Jun 22Toy Story 5↑7pp81→88¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Hoppers↑4pp72→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Toy Story 5↑4pp75→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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