2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid market on "The Social Reckoning" Oscar nomination shows extreme asymmetry with a 473.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.2% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low conviction among traders.
Analysis
This illiquid market on "The Social Reckoning" Oscar nomination shows extreme asymmetry with a 473.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.2% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low conviction among traders. The $108 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal market activity, while the wide 8¢ spread and recent 7-point price surge (from 4¢ to 11¢) raise questions about whether this movement reflects genuine information or just thin-market volatility. With 624 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 8, the market has time for price discovery, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution about relying on the current 16¢ price as a reliable probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If The Social Reckoning has been nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-SOC yes 100