2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $343 open interest, suggesting very thin liquidity and limited trader conviction around Digger's Oscar nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $343 open interest, suggesting very thin liquidity and limited trader conviction around Digger's Oscar nomination prospects. The 63¢ price implies a moderately bullish view, but the asymmetric yields—46% for Yes versus 74.5% for No—indicate the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 37%. With over 620 days until resolution and a low cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative position with ample time for the film's awards trajectory to become clearer, though the lack of trading activity suggests few participants are actively monitoring this particular outcome.
Resolution rules
If Digger has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-DIG yes 100