What is the current probability for "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100.4% and 34.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 37/38¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $86·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-FJO

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 99.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the illiquidity risk and long 624-day duration until resolution. The tight 1¢ spread is misleading given the minimal trading activity—this appears to be a speculative niche market where any meaningful trade could move the price substantially.

Resolution rules

If Fjord has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 100.4%

IY (No) 34.6%

Adj IY 49%

CRI 2

Overround 0.8%

LAS 0.03

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	100.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	34.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	49%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:03:24 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-FJO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →