SimpleFunctions

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations

Dune: Part Three is priced at 84¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations.

Price history

84¢ current

+10¢
70¢80¢
Jun 28, 2026Jul 23, 2026

Contract brief

If Dune: Part Three has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Dune: Part Three

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

The Odyssey 98¢

Range

1¢-98¢

Family volume

$6K

Identifier

KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DUN

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

84¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

81¢

Ask

84¢

Spread

24h volume

$222

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Family volume

$6K

Orderbook snapshot

81 / 84¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
81¢5
80¢64
79¢17
78¢553
77¢10
AskSize
84¢75
85¢816
86¢500
88¢2
90¢13

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Dune: Part Three has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DUN

SF Signal
SF Index
295.73
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

16.3%

IY (No)

295.7%

Adj IY

296%

CRI

4

RV

73%

VR

1.79

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

16.3%
295.7%
Adj IY
296%
4
RV
73%
VR
1.79
IAR
0.2/h
Overround
8.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.