2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows a striking 25¢ cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Disclosure Day's Best Picture nomination chances at 44% versus Polymarket's 19%, suggesting significant disagreement or liquidity differences between platforms.
Analysis
This market shows a striking 25¢ cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Disclosure Day's Best Picture nomination chances at 44% versus Polymarket's 19%, suggesting significant disagreement or liquidity differences between platforms. The 91.9% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the 621-day time horizon, indicating either strong conviction among Yes backers or potential mispricing given the thin $4.37 daily volume and modest $2,626 open interest. The recent price recovery from 33¢ to 39¢ over seven days combined with the 5¢ spread suggests modest momentum, though the low liquidity makes the market susceptible to slippage.
Also on polymarket at 9¢(Δ +38¢)
Resolution rules
If Disclosure Day has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DIS yes 100