Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House for Alaska combo
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 12 inside Alaska combo.
Price history
37¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
Rank
#1 of 12
Leader
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD
Sep 9, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$358
Family rank
#1 of 12
12 outcomes · Alaska combo
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD
Event family
Alaska combo.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 37¢
Current share
—
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD
Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDR
Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDD
Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RRD
Republican sweep
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RRR
Democratic sweep
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DDD
Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DDR
Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DRD
Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DRR
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDR
Independent House, Republican Governor, Democratic Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IRD
Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IRR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.