SimpleFunctions

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House for Alaska combo

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 12 inside Alaska combo.

Price history

37¢ current

+10¢
20¢30¢40¢
Sep 5, 2026Sep 9, 2026

Contract brief

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House

Rank

#1 of 12

Leader

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 37¢

Range

1¢-37¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD

Sep 9, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

37¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 9, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

38¢

Ask

43¢

Spread

Reported volume

$358

Family rank

#1 of 12

12 outcomes · Alaska combo

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

38 / 43¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
38¢16
37¢200
30¢1
25¢250
3¢350
AskSize
43¢2
44¢200
88¢347
89¢594
99¢150

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD

SF Signal
SF Index
73.97
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

147.9%

IY (No)

51.0%

Adj IY

74%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

147.9%
51.0%
Adj IY
74%
2
Overround
-0.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.