Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate for Alaska combo
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 12 inside Alaska combo.
Price history
1¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If ALL of an independent candidate registered as Nonpartisan or Undeclared in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
Rank
#7 of 12
Leader
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 45¢
Range
1¢-45¢
Family volume
$71
Identifier
KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDR
Sep 18, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$538
Family rank
#7 of 12
12 outcomes · Alaska combo
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$71
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of an independent candidate registered as Nonpartisan or Undeclared in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDR
Event family
Alaska combo.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$71
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 45¢
Current share
0%
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDD
Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RDR
Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDD
Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RRD
Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IRR
Republican sweep
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-RRR
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IDR
Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DRR
Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DRD
Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DDR
Democratic sweep
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-DDD
Independent House, Republican Governor, Democratic Senate
kalshi · KXAKCOMBO-26NOV03-IRD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.