Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half
Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN27JORARG.
Price history
29¢ current
+27¢Contract brief
If Argentina win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Jordan vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals 25¢
Range
3¢-25¢
Family volume
$562
Identifier
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN27JORARG-ARG2
Jun 22, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$562
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN27JORARG
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
Family volume
$562
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Argentina win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Jordan vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
Identifier
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN27JORARG-ARG2
Event family
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN27JORARG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$562
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals 25¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.