SimpleFunctions

Buffalo wins by over 14.5 points

Buffalo wins by over 14.5 points is priced at 24¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU.

Price history

24¢ current

+20¢
0¢10¢20¢
Aug 4, 2026Aug 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Buffalo wins by more than 14.5 points in the Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Buffalo wins by over 14.5 points

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points 45¢

Range

15¢-45¢

Family volume

$135

Identifier

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU-BUF15

Aug 8, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

24¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 8, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

33¢

Spread

18¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Family volume

$135

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 33¢

Kalshi
18¢ spread
BidSize
15¢10
12¢10
10¢10
8¢10
6¢10
AskSize
33¢10
46¢2.6K
47¢2.7K
63¢16K
70¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Buffalo wins by more than 14.5 points in the Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Identifier

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU-BUF15

SF Signal
SF Index
2676.41
Regime
taker

Event family

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$135

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points 45¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

5352.8%

IY (No)

166.7%

Adj IY

2676%

CRI

6

Overround

4.5%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

5352.8%
166.7%
Adj IY
2676%
6
Overround
4.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.