SimpleFunctions

Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points

Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points is priced at 33¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 46¢ ask, 26¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU.

Price history

33¢ current

+27¢
0¢25¢
Aug 4, 2026Aug 8, 2026

Contract brief

If Buffalo wins by more than 6.5 points in the Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points

Rank

#10 of 16

Leader

Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points 45¢

Range

15¢-45¢

Family volume

$135

Identifier

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU-BUF7

Aug 8, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 8m ago

Implied probability

33¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 8, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 8m ago

Bid

20¢

Ask

46¢

Spread

26¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#10 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Family volume

$135

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 46¢

Kalshi
26¢ spread
BidSize
20¢1.0K
10¢10
8¢10
6¢52K
5¢2.0K
AskSize
46¢1.0K
66¢4.4K
70¢10
75¢2.0K
76¢4.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Buffalo wins by more than 6.5 points in the Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Identifier

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU-BUF7

SF Signal
SF Index
3778.47
Regime
taker

Event family

KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13BUFHOU.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$135

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points 45¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3778.5%

IY (No)

236.2%

Adj IY

3778%

CRI

4

RV

6331%

VR

6.01

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

3778.5%
236.2%
Adj IY
3778%
4
RV
6331%
VR
6.01
IAR
1.0/h
Overround
4.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.