Chicago wins by over 14.5 points
Chicago wins by over 14.5 points is priced at 26¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 22¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR.
Price history
26¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If Chicago wins by more than 14.5 points in the Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Chicago wins by over 14.5 points
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Chicago wins by over 2.5 points 50¢
Range
15¢-50¢
Family volume
$132
Identifier
KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI15
Aug 7, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 56m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
22¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Family volume
$132
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Chicago wins by more than 14.5 points in the Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Identifier
KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI15
Event family
KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$132
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Chicago wins by over 2.5 points 50¢
Current share
0%
Chicago wins by over 2.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI3
Carolina wins by over 1.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR2
Carolina wins by over 2.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR3
Carolina wins by over 3.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR4
Carolina wins by over 4.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR5
Chicago wins by over 9.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI10
Carolina wins by over 5.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR6
Carolina wins by over 6.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR7
Chicago wins by over 10.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI11
Carolina wins by over 9.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR10
Chicago wins by over 14.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI15
Carolina wins by over 10.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR11
Carolina wins by over 13.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR14
Carolina wins by over 14.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR15
Carolina wins by over 7.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CAR8
Chicago wins by over 13.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI14
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.