SimpleFunctions

Mohammed bin Salman · Donald Trump and

Mohammed bin Salman is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 97¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside Donald Trump and.

Price history

99¢ current

+76¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jul 1, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet (including phone calls) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Mohammed bin Salman

Rank

#1 of 15

Leader

Mohammed bin Salman 97¢

Range

1¢-97¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXTRUMPMEET-26JUL-MBS

Jul 12, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

97¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

24h volume

$598

Family rank

#1 of 15

15 outcomes · Donald Trump and

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

97 / 100¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
97¢333
96¢162
95¢95
92¢75
86¢53
AskSize

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet (including phone calls) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMEET-26JUL-MBS

SF Signal
SF Index
29483.53
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

56.4%

IY (No)

58967.1%

Adj IY

29484%

CRI

32

Overround

3.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

56.4%
58967.1%
Adj IY
29484%
32
Overround
3.2%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.