SimpleFunctions

1+ goals for Erling Haaland

Erling Haaland: 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+ is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA.

Price history

40¢ current

+15¢
30¢40¢
Jun 24, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Erling Haaland records at least 1 goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Norway vs France professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Erling Haaland: 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 52¢

Range

1¢-52¢

Family volume

$251K

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9-1

Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

40¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

39¢

Ask

40¢

Spread

24h volume

$39K

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA

Closes

Jul 10, 2026

Family volume

$251K

Orderbook snapshot

39 / 40¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
39¢66
38¢51
37¢14
36¢1
31¢22
AskSize
40¢2.1K
41¢8.3K
42¢8.0K
43¢2.2K
50¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Erling Haaland records at least 1 goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Norway vs France professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 10, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9-1

SF Signal
SF Index
3572.39
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$251K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 52¢

Current share

16%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAKMBAPP10-1

52¢
$52K$52K0.1

Erling Haaland: 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9-1

39¢
$39K$39K0.1

Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAODEMBE10-1

26¢
$1K$1K

Michael Olise: 1+ goals: Michael Olise: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAMOLISE17-1

18¢
$1K$1K

Desire Doue: 1+ goals: Desire Doue: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRADDOUE14-1

15¢
$407$407

Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAKMBAPP10-2

11¢
$78K$78K0.8

Erling Haaland: 2+ goals: Erling Haaland: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9-2

10¢
$43K$43K0.1

Martin Odegaard: 1+ goals: Martin Odegaard: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NORMODEGA8-1

9¢
$2K$2K0.3

Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals: Antonio Nusa: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NORANUSA7-1

8¢
$183$183

Ousmane Dembele: 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAODEMBE10-2

5¢
$4K$4K0.4

Kylian Mbappe: 3+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 3+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAKMBAPP10-3

3¢
$24K$24K0.7

Desire Doue: 2+ goals: Desire Doue: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRADDOUE14-2

3¢
$47$470.3

Michael Olise: 2+ goals: Michael Olise: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAMOLISE17-2

3¢
$0$00.7

Erling Haaland: 3+ goals: Erling Haaland: 3+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NOREHAALA9-3

2¢
$5K$5K

Ousmane Dembele: 3+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 3+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-FRAODEMBE10-3

2¢
$274$274

Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals: Antonio Nusa: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUN26NORFRA-NORANUSA7-2

1¢
$99$99

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3765.6%

IY (No)

1539.2%

Adj IY

3572%

CRI

2

RV

1587%

VR

1.98

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3765.6%
1539.2%
Adj IY
3572%
2
RV
1587%
VR
1.98
IAR
1.3/h
Overround
1.0%
LAS
0.05

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.