Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026 is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
0¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$191K
Identifier
0x08b346f4...ee0a
Jun 25, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$191K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x08b346f4…ee0a
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$191K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026 0¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.