Xi Jinping out by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 18%, Polymarket at 13% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
1 contract
Polymarket
13%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$152K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 18¢ · Polymarket 13¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (13¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (18¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as” vs “Xi Jinping out before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as
Cluster 2
Xi Jinping out before 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
0xa467b1…43b7
Cluster 3
Netanyahu out by
Netanyahu out by...?: June 30
0x865303…3cce
Cluster 4
Kash Patel out by
Kash Patel out by...?: June 30
0x79859c…13ce
Cluster 5
Starmer out by
Starmer out by...?: June 30
0xbee2cd…5053
Cluster 6
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?: June 30, 2026
0xb14c07…0247
Cluster 7
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?: June 30
0x08b346…ee0a
Cluster 8
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
0x269b4d…75a8
Cluster 9
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?: June 30, 2026
0x5649a9…640d
Cluster 10
Masoud Pezeshkian out by
Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?: June 30
0x3ed92a…f055
Cluster 11
Tulsi Gabbard out by
Tulsi Gabbard out by...?: June 30
0x760355…d83a
Cluster 12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: June 30
0x6a5a2f…e51a
Cluster 13
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
0xffbcdc…19d4
Cluster 14
Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026
Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026?: Before June 1, 2026
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN
Cluster 15
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?: June 30, 2026
0x56f429…6dae
Cluster 16
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?: June 30
0xc1a90c…7c45
Cluster 17
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?: June 30, 2026
0xef416c…e2c5
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Xi Jinping ceases to hold his position as China's paramount leader within 16 days. At 14%, markets assign this outcome low but non-negligible odds. The baseline reflects Xi's consolidated control and absence of imminent succession planning, which would require extraordinary circumstances—serious health crisis, military coup, or major political rupture—to materialize in such a short timeframe. Upward pressure could come from unexpected health events or unprecedented factional conflict, while downward pressure reflects the stability of current power structures. The June 30 deadline captures a specific calendar point with no universally recognized trigger date; absence of any scheduled succession event contributes to the low probability. Resolution depends entirely on developments in Chinese leadership that markets cannot reliably predict.
- ›No announced health issues or public reports of incapacity as of mid-June 2026
- ›Xi's consolidation of military and party control structures historically reduces succession risk compared to earlier reform-era transitions
- ›Short 16-day timeframe makes sudden institutional change extremely unlikely absent dramatic triggering event
- ›Absence of any scheduled party plenum, congress, or formal transfer mechanism by June 30
- ›Markets show modest disagreement (18% on Kalshi vs 13% on Polymarket), suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal
What moved the line
- Jun 17June 30↑8pp24→32¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18June 30↓8pp32→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15June 30, 2026↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16June 30↑3pp21→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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