18 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 40 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 57d

Xi Jinping out by June 30

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 18%, Polymarket at 13% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

14%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

18%

1 contract

Polymarket

13%

17 contracts

Cross-venue gap

5pp

wide divergence

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$152K

18 contracts

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

57 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 18 contracts · 26d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 18¢ · Polymarket 13¢ · 5pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (13¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (18¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

17 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as” vs “Xi Jinping out before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as

2 contracts$15K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: June 30

0x119db6…d515

18¢−2pp$15KP→

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

0x488744…5b21

19¢−1pp$310P→

Cluster 2

Xi Jinping out before 2027

1 contract$97K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

0xa467b1…43b7

8¢−1pp$97KP→

Cluster 3

Netanyahu out by

1 contract$12K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Netanyahu out by...?: June 30

0x865303…3cce

5¢−23pp$12KP→

Cluster 4

Kash Patel out by

1 contract$11K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Kash Patel out by...?: June 30

0x79859c…13ce

31¢−1pp$11KP→

Cluster 5

Starmer out by

1 contract$8K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Starmer out by...?: June 30

0xbee2cd…5053

41¢−1pp$8KP→

Cluster 6

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by

1 contract$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?: June 30, 2026

0xb14c07…0247

17¢−2pp$4KP→

Cluster 7

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by

1 contract$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?: June 30

0x08b346…ee0a

5¢−1pp$2KP→

Cluster 8

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30

1 contract$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

0x269b4d…75a8

13¢±0$1KP→

Cluster 9

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by

1 contract$716

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?: June 30, 2026

0x5649a9…640d

3¢±0$716P→

Cluster 10

Masoud Pezeshkian out by

1 contract$702

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?: June 30

0x3ed92a…f055

11¢−2pp$702P→

Cluster 11

Tulsi Gabbard out by

1 contract$416

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Tulsi Gabbard out by...?: June 30

0x760355…d83a

23¢−1pp$416P→

Cluster 12

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by

1 contract$115

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: June 30

0x6a5a2f…e51a

12¢−1pp$115P→

Cluster 13

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30

1 contract$53

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

0xffbcdc…19d4

3¢−1pp$53P→

Cluster 14

Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026

1 contract$29

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026?: Before June 1, 2026

KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN

18¢±0$29K→

Cluster 15

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by

1 contract$15

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?: June 30, 2026

0x56f429…6dae

4¢±0$15P→

Cluster 16

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by

1 contract$10

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?: June 30

0xc1a90c…7c45

6¢−1pp$10P→

Cluster 17

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?: June 30, 2026

0xef416c…e2c5

9¢+2pp$0P→

What moved the line

May 2June 30↓23pp28→5¢ · Polymarket
Apr 28June 30↑21pp7→28¢ · Polymarket
Apr 28June 30, 2026↑18pp4→22¢ · Polymarket
Apr 30June 30, 2026↓18pp22→4¢ · Polymarket
Apr 29June 30↓15pp59→44¢ · Polymarket

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 40 min ago.

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