SimpleFunctions

Harlem Eubank to win Harlem Eubank vs David Papot

Harlem Eubank is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Harlem Eubank vs David Papot Winner.

Price history

44¢ current

+42¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jul 11, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Harlem Eubank wins the Harlem Eubank vs David Papot boxing match originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Harlem Eubank

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

David Papot 59¢

Range

41¢-59¢

Family volume

$728

Identifier

KXBOXING-26JUL18EUBANKPAPOT-EUBANK

Jul 13, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 8m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 8m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

44¢

Spread

24h volume

$125

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Harlem Eubank vs David Papot Winner

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$728

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 44¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
41¢1.0K
40¢1.1K
39¢1.0K
5¢5.0K
3¢4.9K
AskSize
44¢539
45¢1.0K
47¢1.0K
48¢1.8K
49¢975

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Harlem Eubank wins the Harlem Eubank vs David Papot boxing match originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXBOXING-26JUL18EUBANKPAPOT-EUBANK

SF Signal
SF Index
2697.29
Regime
neutral

Event family

Harlem Eubank vs David Papot Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$728

Outcomes

2

Highest price

David Papot 59¢

Current share

17%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2697.3%

IY (No)

1302.5%

Adj IY

2697%

CRI

1

RV

275%

VR

0.51

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2697.3%
1302.5%
Adj IY
2697%
1
RV
275%
VR
0.51
IAR
1.2/h

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.