How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—39.7% for Yes versus 499.2% for No—suggest significant mispricing, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns that typically indicates low confidence in the current price. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, traders should be cautious about the thin liquidity and consider that recent upward price movement (75¢ to 78¢) may reflect minimal trading rather than genuine market conviction.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 410, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-410 yes 100