How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the No side offering a striking 381% annualized return compared to just 52% for Yes, suggesting the 72¢ price may overweight the probability of reaching 430+ rigs by year-end 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the No side offering a striking 381% annualized return compared to just 52% for Yes, suggesting the 72¢ price may overweight the probability of reaching 430+ rigs by year-end 2026. The unusually high realized volatility of 92% and low 24-hour volume of just $17 against $2,673 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, while the recent 7-cent rally from 66¢ to 73¢ over a week warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine information arrival or speculative positioning. With 259 days to expiry and a modest cliff risk index of 3, traders should watch for oil market developments and rig count data releases that could trigger sharp repricing in either direction.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 430, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-430 yes 100