More than 3 weeks · How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than
More than 3 weeks is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than.
Price history
6¢ current
−43¢Contract brief
If petal by Ariana Grande has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 3 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
More than 3 weeks
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
More than 1 week 77¢
Range
1¢-77¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-3
Jun 25, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If petal by Ariana Grande has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 3 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Identifier
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-3
Event family
How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
More than 1 week 77¢
Current share
0%
More than 1 week
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-1
More than 2 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-2
More than 3 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-3
More than 5 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-5
More than 4 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-4
More than 8 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-8
More than 7 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-7
More than 6 weeks
kalshi · KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-6
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.