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More than 3 weeks · How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than

More than 3 weeks is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than.

Price history

6¢ current

43¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If petal by Ariana Grande has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 3 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

More than 3 weeks

Rank

#3 of 8

Leader

More than 1 week 77¢

Range

1¢-77¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-3

Jun 25, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

6¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$6

Family rank

#3 of 8

8 outcomes · How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 6¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢3.1K
5¢267
4¢496
3¢500
2¢12K
AskSize
6¢10
8¢4
21¢5
22¢400
40¢400

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If petal by Ariana Grande has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 3 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Identifier

KXTOPALBUMRECORD-PET-ARI-3

SF Signal
SF Index
1555.57
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3888.9%

IY (No)

10.8%

Adj IY

1556%

CRI

19

Overround

0.1%

LAS

0.20

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3888.9%
10.8%
Adj IY
1556%
19
Overround
0.1%
LAS
0.20

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.