At least $500 · How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $
At least $500 is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $.
Price history
75¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the first price announced for a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket by FF2 Operations LLC is at least $500, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least $500
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
At least $500 75¢
Range
13¢-75¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-500
Jun 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$59
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 77¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the first price announced for a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket by FF2 Operations LLC is at least $500, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-500
Event family
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
At least $500 75¢
Current share
—
At least $500
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-500
At least $100
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-100
At least $1250
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1250
At least $750
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-750
At least $1000
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1000
At least $1400
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1400
At least $1750
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1750
At least $2000
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-2000
At least $3000
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-3000
At least $5000
kalshi · KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-5000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 75% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.