How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost
Leader sits at 84% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least $100
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
At least $500
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1333 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $100
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-100
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $5000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-5000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $3000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-3000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $2000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-2000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1750
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1750
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1400
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1400
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1250
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1250
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $750
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-750
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $500
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-500
Analysis
This contracts asks whether a Fyre Festival revival will charge at least a certain price for general admission tickets. The current 47% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether organizers will attempt a second iteration of the infamous 2017 event, and if so, what pricing strategy they'd adopt. The main drivers of this probability are the event's notoriously failed first attempt and associated legal/reputation challenges, balanced against potential investor appetite for a "redemption" narrative and evolving festival economics. Resolution depends on whether a Fyre Festival 2 actually occurs and publicly announces ticket pricing. The cross-venue disagreement (Kalshi at 49% vs Polymarket at 41%) suggests traders weight the brand revival and pricing assumptions differently, though trading volumes are modest across both venues, indicating limited consensus.
- ›Whether a Fyre Festival 2 is formally announced by organizers or promoters, as tickets may not be priced if the event never materializes
- ›Historical pricing patterns for celebrity-backed music festivals post-2017, which have ranged from $500-$2,000 for general admission depending on lineup and location
- ›Legal and liability status of Frank Marshall and associated entities, which would directly affect investment and insurance costs embedded in ticket pricing
- ›Market appetite for high-end festival experiences in the post-pandemic economy and whether a rebrand can overcome the 2017 brand damage
- ›Current low trading volumes on both venues, suggesting market participants remain uncertain about both event probability and pricing threshold details
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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