How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost
Leader sits at 75% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least $500
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
65¢
At least $100
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1284 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $100
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-100
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $750
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-750
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $5000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-5000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $500
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-500
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $3000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-3000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $2000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-2000
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1750
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1750
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1400
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1400
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1250
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1250
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?: At least $1000
KXFYREFESTPRICE-30-1000
Analysis
This market estimates an 75% probability that Fyre Festival 2 general admission tickets will cost at least $500. The current pricing reflects expectations about event scale, production quality, and organizer positioning relative to the original 2017 festival. Demand for luxury music festivals has grown substantially since the original Fyre collapse, and promoters typically price premium experiences higher when confidence in execution increases. The probability could shift upward if announcement details emphasize high-end amenities, celebrity endorsements, or luxury partnerships. Conversely, it could decline if organizers position the event as budget-conscious or if ticket sales reveal weaker-than-expected pricing strategy. The resolution depends on official ticket pricing when sales launch, likely during promotional announcements or pre-sale periods in coming months.
- ›Comparable luxury festival pricing: Coachella, Burning Man, and similar premium events typically range $400-$1,000+, providing market benchmarks
- ›Organizer credibility and budget: Whether the promoter secures significant sponsorships or celebrity involvement affects perceived value and justifiable price points
- ›Market sentiment recovery: Demand for high-cost festival experiences has shifted since 2017; current appetite for luxury events influences what organizers believe they can charge
- ›Marketing positioning: How the event is framed (exclusive/luxury versus accessible/value) directly signals intended price tier to the market
- ›Ticket announcement timing: Official pricing disclosure through press release or ticket platform launch will definitively resolve the market
What moved the line
- Jun 21At least $100↓60pp74→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least $1000↑58pp3→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21At least $750↓45pp74→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least $750↑36pp29→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21At least $2000↓28pp29→1¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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