SimpleFunctions

1+ goals for Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+ is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.

Price history

24¢ current

+9¢
20¢30¢
Jul 10, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Lamine Yamal records at least 1 goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 45¢

Range

2¢-45¢

Family volume

$1.1M

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-1

Jul 12, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

24¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

24¢

Ask

26¢

Spread

24h volume

$54K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Family volume

$1.1M

Orderbook snapshot

24 / 26¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
24¢387
23¢20K
22¢10K
21¢5
20¢100
AskSize
26¢249K
27¢1.0M
28¢8.9K
29¢6.1K
30¢153K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Lamine Yamal records at least 1 goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-1

SF Signal
SF Index
6970.64
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1.1M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 45¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-1

45¢
$499K$499K0.0

Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals: Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMOYARZ10-1

27¢
$22K$22K

Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-1

25¢
$153K$153K0.0

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-1

24¢
$50K$50K0.0

Michael Olise: 1+ goals: Michael Olise: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17-1

17¢
$29K$29K0.2

Desire Doue: 1+ goals: Desire Doue: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRADDOUE14-1

16¢
$8K$8K0.3

Dani Olmo: 1+ goals: Dani Olmo: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPDOLMO20-1

15¢
$7K$7K

Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-2

12¢
$145K$145K0.1

Pedri: 1+ goals: Pedri: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPPEDR8-1

5¢
$12K$12K

Ousmane Dembele: 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-2

4¢
$49K$49K0.3

Aurelien Tchouameni: 1+ goals: Aurelien Tchouameni: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAATCHOU14-1

4¢
$13K$13K

Jules Kounde: 1+ goals: Jules Kounde: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAJKOUND23-1

4¢
$12K$12K

Marc Cucurella: 1+ goals: Marc Cucurella: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMCUCUR3-1

4¢
$10K$10K

Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-2

3¢
$31K$31K

Michael Olise: 2+ goals: Michael Olise: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17-2

3¢
$8K$8K0.3

Kylian Mbappe: 3+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 3+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-3

2¢
$33K$33K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

7274.0%

IY (No)

725.4%

Adj IY

6971%

CRI

3

RV

2322%

VR

2.04

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

7274.0%
725.4%
Adj IY
6971%
3
RV
2322%
VR
2.04
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
1.2%
LAS
0.04

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.