SimpleFunctions

2+ goals for Ousmane Dembele

Ousmane Dembele: 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+ is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.

Price history

5¢ current

+1¢
0¢5¢
Jul 10, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Ousmane Dembele records at least 2 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Ousmane Dembele: 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+

Rank

#10 of 16

Leader

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 45¢

Range

2¢-45¢

Family volume

$924K

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-2

Jul 12, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

5¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$43K

Family rank

#10 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Family volume

$924K

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 5¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢349
4¢3.2K
3¢4.7K
2¢4.0K
AskSize
5¢138K
6¢134K
7¢6.9K
8¢11K
9¢737

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Ousmane Dembele records at least 2 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-2

SF Signal
SF Index
27313.54
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$924K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ 45¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-1

45¢
$440K$440K0.0

Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals: Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMOYARZ10-1

27¢
$18K$18K0.1

Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-1

25¢
$135K$135K0.0

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-1

25¢
$40K$40K0.0

Michael Olise: 1+ goals: Michael Olise: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17-1

16¢
$26K$26K0.2

Desire Doue: 1+ goals: Desire Doue: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRADDOUE14-1

16¢
$6K$6K0.3

Dani Olmo: 1+ goals: Dani Olmo: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPDOLMO20-1

14¢
$5K$5K

Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-2

12¢
$115K$115K0.1

Pedri: 1+ goals: Pedri: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPPEDR8-1

5¢
$10K$10K

Ousmane Dembele: 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10-2

4¢
$42K$42K

Aurelien Tchouameni: 1+ goals: Aurelien Tchouameni: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAATCHOU14-1

4¢
$12K$12K

Jules Kounde: 1+ goals: Jules Kounde: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAJKOUND23-1

4¢
$9K$9K0.3

Marc Cucurella: 1+ goals: Marc Cucurella: 1+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMCUCUR3-1

4¢
$8K$8K0.3

Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10-2

3¢
$24K$24K0.3

Michael Olise: 2+ goals: Michael Olise: 2+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17-2

3¢
$7K$7K0.3

Kylian Mbappe: 3+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 3+

kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10-3

2¢
$26K$26K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

54627.1%

IY (No)

94.8%

Adj IY

27314%

CRI

24

Overround

1.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

54627.1%
94.8%
Adj IY
27314%
24
Overround
1.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.