Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. It will not be relevant for this market if Michael Saylor is no longer Chairman of Microstrategy at any point. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$65K
Identifier
0xbec8b2df...2240
Jul 23, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$8K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$65K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. It will not be relevant for this market if Michael Saylor is no longer Chairman of Microstrategy at any point. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xbec8b2df…2240
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$65K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026 8¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.