Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
2¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$277K
Identifier
0xb14c073b...0247
Jun 26, 2026, 1:27 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$883
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$277K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xb14c073b…0247
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$277K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026 2¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.