Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced inverted structure, with the shortest-tenor 25-day bucket displaying the cheapest YES probabilities across most strike levels. At the T0.0 strike, the 25-day market prices YES at just 17%, compared to 39% at 54 days, 79% at 84 days, and stabilizing around 72-79% at longer tenors through November. This inversion is most dramatic in the negative-tail strikes (T-0.1 and T-0.2), where 25-day YES probabilities of 27% and 60% give way to 57% and 69% at 54 days, then climb to 77-81% by August and remain elevated through November. The positive-tail strikes (T0.1 through T0.5) show a similar pattern, with 25-day probabilities of 4% or lower expanding to 29-63% at 54 days and remaining substantial through the longer tenors. Volume concentration in the 25-day bucket—particularly the $9.2k in T0.0 and $7.0k in T-0.2—suggests active near-term positioning despite the illiquidity evident in longer-dated contracts. The inverted structure reveals market expectations that the triggering event (likely a CPI print) will not materialize within 25 days but becomes increasingly probable thereafter. The sharp probability expansion between 25 and 54 days points to a specific catalyst window, most likely the June-to-July CPI release schedule. The market is essentially pricing near-zero conviction for an imminent outcome, then assigning substantial probability mass to the mid-summer period, with that conviction gradually consolidating at elevated levels through November. This suggests traders view the near