Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 1st District House election be at least 33 percentage points

The yield curve displays a distinctly inverted structure across the 458-day tenor, with the highest YES probabilities concentrated at the shortest maturities and declining sharply as one moves through the distribution. The AL04R bucket shows the steepest probabilities, ranging from 91% at P45 down to 7% at P69, while the AL03R bucket similarly descends from 88% to 7% across its range. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the AL02D bucket, where markets price outcomes at just 1-2%, with the AL02D-P20 and AL02D-P26 contracts trading at the absolute floor of 1%. This inverted structure is consistent across multiple regional buckets (AL01R through AL07D), suggesting systematic market consensus rather than isolated pricing anomalies. The shape of this curve communicates that the market expects the midterm movement event to occur with high confidence in the near-to-intermediate term, with conviction rapidly deteriorating at the extremes. The concentration of 70%+ probabilities in the AL04R and AL03R buckets indicates the market's modal expectation clusters around specific outcome ranges, while the collapse to single-digit probabilities in AL02D suggests markets assign minimal likelihood to the most extreme scenarios. The consistent inverted pattern across all regional variants implies this is not a liquidity artifact but rather reflects genuine market belief that if the event occurs, it will materialize within the central probability mass rather than at tail outcomes. The near-zero probabilities at the extreme downside (AL02D) particularly suggest markets view the most pessimistic scenarios as highly unlikely within the 458-day window.