Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 1st District House election be at least 33 percentage points

The prediction market displays a distinctly inverted yield curve structure across the 515-day tenor, with probabilities clustering heavily at the extremes rather than showing traditional term progression. The AL04R series exhibits the highest YES probabilities, peaking at 91.0% for the P45 contract, while the AL02D series contains the cheapest YES probabilities, bottoming at 1.0% for the P26 contract. Rather than a smooth monotonic decline, the curve shows sharp discontinuities between regional buckets—AL03R ranges from 88.0% down to 7.0%, AL05R spans 69.0% to 12.0%, and AL06R moves from 80.0% to 10.0%. This fragmented structure suggests the market is pricing distinct outcome clusters rather than a continuous distribution of possibilities. The inverted and bifurcated shape indicates the market expects the event to cluster around specific outcomes with high conviction, rather than dispersing gradually across the full outcome space. The concentration of high probabilities in the AL03R and AL04R buckets (peaking at 88-91%) combined with the sharp drop-offs to single-digit probabilities in adjacent regions suggests strong consensus around particular scenarios. The AL02D series' extreme lows (1-5% range) indicate near-zero probability for those specific outcomes. The minimal trading volume across nearly all contracts ($0 for most, with only $498 total volume in AL05R) reflects a market that has largely priced in its view and awaits new information to shift these concentrated probability masses.