Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 26 percentage points

The prediction market displays a steeply downward-sloping curve across all 546-day tenors, with YES probabilities declining sharply as strike prices increase. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the highest strike levels: WYALR-P49 trades at 4%, WV02R-P45 at 4%, and WV01R-P45 at 3%, representing the tail end of the distribution. In contrast, the highest probabilities concentrate at lower strikes, with KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P26 at 91%, WVSENR-P26 at 90%, and WYGOVR-P19 at 88%. This steep negative slope is consistent across all five regional subsets (Wyoming Senate, Wyoming Governor, Wyoming At-Large, West Virginia Senate, and West Virginia races), suggesting a uniform market structure rather than idiosyncratic pricing. The shape of this curve indicates the market expects significant movement in these midterm election-related outcomes, with high confidence in moderate-to-substantial shifts but rapidly declining conviction in extreme outcomes. The concentration of high probabilities in the 26-34 strike range and the sharp drop-off beyond 40 suggests the market is pricing in a consensus view that outcomes will cluster within a relatively narrow band, with tail risks heavily discounted. The uniform steepness across all regional markets and the near-zero trading volume on most contracts indicate this represents a stable, consensus forecast rather than active disagreement—the market is collectively confident about the direction and magnitude of expected movement, but assigns minimal probability to extreme scenarios.