Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 1st District House election be at least 33 percentage points

The prediction market displays a flat yield curve across all 3,337 constituent markets, with every contract sharing a uniform 405-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities vary dramatically across different outcome specifications, ranging from 1.0% (AL02D-P26) to 81.0% (AL05R-P10). The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around specific outcome categories: AL02D markets show the lowest prices overall, with several contracts priced at 1-8%, while AL05R-P34 and AL06R-P42 also trade at extreme lows of 2% and 6% respectively. The highest probabilities concentrate in AL05R and AL06R markets, where multiple contracts exceed 50-80%, suggesting these represent the most heavily favored outcomes. This wide dispersion within a single tenor indicates the market is pricing distinct, mutually exclusive event scenarios rather than expressing uncertainty about timing. The flat tenor structure combined with dispersed outcome probabilities reveals that market participants view the resolution date as fixed and certain, with all uncertainty concentrated on *which* outcome materializes rather than *when*. The market is not pricing in meaningful probability of early resolution or delayed settlement; instead, it treats the 405-day endpoint as deterministic and allocates probabilities across competing scenarios. The extreme skew toward certain outcomes (81% for AL05R-P10 versus 1% for AL02D-P26) suggests strong consensus around particular midterm movement patterns, with the market decisively favoring specific regional or sectoral outcomes while assigning negligible odds to others. This structure indicates high confidence in both the event framework and the timing mechanism.