Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?
This contract is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 6¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
4
Family volume
$106
Best sibling
James Talarico, 3+ pts 24¢
Ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P5
Market snapshot
James Talarico, 5+ pts in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?. The displayed quote is 12¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $551. In the Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least family, this outcome ranks #3 of 4 by current quote across 4 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC.
Outcome
James Talarico, 5+ pts
Family rank
#3 of 4
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
12¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2027
Reported volume
$551
Family context
4 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least
Quote range
8¢-41¢
Family leader
James Talarico, 1+ pts 41¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC · 5m ago
Venue identifier: KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P5. Family volume: $106.
Price history
12¢ current
−4¢Orderbook snapshot
11 / 17¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P5
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$106
Outcomes
4
Highest price
James Talarico, 1+ pts 41¢
Current share
0%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.