Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%

The yield curve across this 140-market event family displays a remarkably flat structure, with all constituent markets clustered at the 360-364 day tenor. Within this compressed timeframe, the curve shows extreme bimodality rather than traditional steepening or flattening patterns. YES probabilities cluster at two distinct poles: roughly 99% for certain outcomes (AELS-P1, MIPRIMARY07D26-WLAW markets, GOVTNNOMR226-MBLA-P51/P53/P54, HI01D26-ECAS-P57) and predominantly 1-3% for alternative outcomes across the remaining markets. The cheapest YES probabilities reside consistently at 1%, appearing across dozens of markets including AELS-P10, AELS-P13, AELS-P4, most HSTE markets, and the majority of DMCK and STHA markets. This polarization suggests the market has crystallized around a small number of highly probable outcomes rather than distributing probability mass across a continuum. The market's current messaging indicates near-certainty about which specific outcome will occur within the 360-364 day window, with minimal uncertainty about timing within this narrow band. The absence of any meaningful term structure—no progression of probabilities across different tenors—suggests traders view the event resolution as essentially binary and predetermined rather than subject to meaningful timing variation. The high trading volumes concentrated in the 99% and 1% probability buckets (particularly AELS-P57 at $73,441.55 and GOVTNNOMR226-MBLA-P56 at $10,093.76) reinforce that conviction is high among active participants. This flat, bimodal structure