Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12%

The yield curve displays a pronounced flat structure across both tenor buckets, with the 337-day markets clustering around 8-20% YES probabilities for the LA Mayor race (KBAS contracts), while the 358-day markets show extreme bimodality rather than a smooth term structure. Within the 337-day bucket, the cheapest YES probability appears at 4-6% (KBAS-P60 and KBAS-P18), while the most expensive sits at 22% (SPRA-P50). The 358-day bucket reveals a starkly different pattern: most markets price at 1-2% YES, but several contracts spike to 96-99% (notably HGAI-P62, KBOT-P62, CDRA-P7, EGAL-P7, and CRAB-P17). This bimodal distribution suggests the curve is not smoothly sloping but rather segmented by event type, with gubernatorial and state-level races showing extreme conviction in particular outcomes while mayoral markets remain more diffuse. The market's current view reflects high confidence in specific near-term primary outcomes while maintaining substantial uncertainty about others. The 96-99% probabilities on certain 358-day contracts indicate near-certain resolution of those particular races, suggesting the market expects decisive results in those primaries with minimal probability of alternative outcomes. Conversely, the LA mayoral market's flatter distribution across 4-22% suggests genuine uncertainty about which candidate will advance. The absence of a meaningful yield curve slope—with both tenors pricing similarly for comparable events—implies the market does not expect significant probability shifts between now and resolution. This flat structure indicates the market has already incorporated available information and expects relative stability in relative candidate positioning through