France vs Spain Winner

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced steepening pattern across the three tenor buckets, with the shortest-dated markets (tau=15d) displaying the cheapest YES probabilities overall. At 15 days, the weighted average probability across the six constituent markets hovers around 33%, with individual outcomes ranging from 17% to 58%. The curve then rises sharply at the 16-day tenor, where probabilities climb substantially—markets like TUNNED-NED reach 87% and CUWCIV-CIV hits 83%—before moderating slightly at the 17-18 day tenors. This steep upward slope indicates that markets are pricing in significantly higher conviction for event resolution as time extends, suggesting that near-term uncertainty is being resolved into more confident outcomes at slightly longer horizons. The shape of this curve communicates that the market expects meaningful information arrival or event clarification between now and the 16-day mark. The dramatic probability increases from tau=15d to tau=16d suggest markets are anticipating a catalyst or decision point that will substantially narrow uncertainty. The subsequent flattening from 17-18 days indicates that by the longer tenors, most resolution scenarios have already been priced in. This pattern is consistent with a market expecting imminent developments that will crystallize outcomes, rather than gradual probability drift. The steepness itself reflects high current uncertainty that the market believes will be substantially resolved within a very short window—likely corresponding to scheduled match dates or tournament progression in this sports betting context.